Pre-tourney Rankings
Central Florida
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#48
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#42
Pace63.9#306
Improvement-1.1#235

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#63
First Shot+2.1#117
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#32
Layup/Dunks+3.1#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#259
Freethrows+2.2#44
Improvement-2.2#276

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#34
First Shot+7.8#12
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#316
Layups/Dunks+4.0#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#132
Freethrows+3.0#20
Improvement+1.1#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.2% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.2% n/a n/a
Average Seed 9.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% n/a n/a
First Round89.5% n/a n/a
Second Round39.6% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen6.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.8% n/a n/a
Final Four0.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.0 - 2.01.0 - 2.0
Quad 1b1.0 - 3.02.0 - 5.0
Quad 26.0 - 2.08.0 - 7.0
Quad 39.0 - 1.017.0 - 8.0
Quad 46.0 - 0.023.0 - 8.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 213   Rider W 84-70 92%     1 - 0 +8.4 -2.0 +8.6
  Nov 11, 2018 165   Florida Atlantic L 79-80 89%     1 - 1 -4.3 +7.6 -11.8
  Nov 15, 2018 192   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-52 87%     2 - 1 +14.0 -0.7 +15.4
  Nov 16, 2018 174   Saint Joseph's W 77-57 85%     3 - 1 +19.2 +12.6 +9.2
  Nov 18, 2018 117   Western Kentucky W 78-62 74%     4 - 1 +19.8 +11.1 +9.3
  Nov 24, 2018 114   Northern Kentucky W 66-53 81%     5 - 1 +14.2 -3.6 +18.6
  Nov 29, 2018 55   Alabama W 70-64 66%     6 - 1 +12.1 +4.0 +8.3
  Dec 02, 2018 67   @ Missouri L 62-64 OT 50%     6 - 2 +8.4 +5.9 +2.1
  Dec 08, 2018 294   Grambling St. W 70-45 96%     7 - 2 +14.4 -0.5 +16.5
  Dec 11, 2018 111   Georgia Southern W 95-88 80%     8 - 2 +8.4 +14.3 -6.5
  Dec 16, 2018 330   Stetson W 90-65 98%     9 - 2 +10.5 +5.8 +3.7
  Dec 21, 2018 186   Illinois St. W 77-56 91%     10 - 2 +16.7 +10.8 +8.0
  Jan 02, 2019 70   Temple W 78-73 72%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +9.4 +10.0 -0.4
  Jan 05, 2019 107   @ Connecticut W 65-53 62%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +19.3 +0.0 +20.3
  Jan 13, 2019 261   East Carolina W 76-65 95%     13 - 2 3 - 0 +2.4 -3.2 +5.2
  Jan 16, 2019 88   @ Wichita St. L 67-75 57%     13 - 3 3 - 1 +0.5 +6.4 -6.7
  Jan 19, 2019 121   Tulsa W 64-62 82%     14 - 3 4 - 1 +2.8 -5.0 +7.9
  Jan 23, 2019 282   @ Tulane W 75-50 91%     15 - 3 5 - 1 +20.9 +0.2 +20.2
  Jan 27, 2019 58   @ Memphis L 57-77 47%     15 - 4 5 - 2 -8.9 -8.2 -1.2
  Jan 31, 2019 107   Connecticut W 73-67 79%     16 - 4 6 - 2 +7.8 +5.1 +3.1
  Feb 07, 2019 15   Houston L 68-77 40%     16 - 5 6 - 3 +4.0 +3.0 +1.0
  Feb 10, 2019 110   @ SMU W 71-65 63%     17 - 5 7 - 3 +13.0 +4.9 +8.7
  Feb 13, 2019 120   South Florida W 78-65 82%     18 - 5 8 - 3 +13.8 +15.2 -0.2
  Feb 16, 2019 58   Memphis W 79-72 68%     19 - 5 9 - 3 +12.5 +5.3 +6.9
  Feb 21, 2019 32   @ Cincinnati L 55-60 34%     19 - 6 9 - 4 +9.7 -0.1 +8.9
  Feb 24, 2019 110   SMU W 95-48 80%     20 - 6 10 - 4 +48.5 +18.0 +29.7
  Feb 27, 2019 120   @ South Florida W 75-63 65%     21 - 6 11 - 4 +18.4 +16.4 +3.3
  Mar 02, 2019 15   @ Houston W 69-64 22%     22 - 6 12 - 4 +23.6 +14.1 +10.0
  Mar 07, 2019 32   Cincinnati W 58-55 55%     23 - 6 13 - 4 +12.1 +1.3 +11.4
  Mar 09, 2019 70   @ Temple L 62-67 52%     23 - 7 13 - 5 +4.9 -5.1 +9.9
  Mar 15, 2019 58   @ Memphis L 55-79 47%     23 - 8 -12.9 -11.7 -1.2
Projected Record 23.0 - 8.0 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 90.2% 90.2% 9.0 0.0 0.1 5.2 23.9 31.7 23.2 6.0 0.2 9.9 90.2%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 90.2% 0.0% 90.2% 9.0 0.0 0.1 5.2 23.9 31.7 23.2 6.0 0.2 9.9 90.2%